California Climate, Iben Browning and the Business of Weather

Southern California lashed once more by rain, slides

The tail end of a storm that dumped rain on Southern California for nearly a week gave the region one final lashing on Wednesday, burying houses and cars in mud, washing hillsides onto highways, flooding urban streets, threatening dozens of canyon homes and spreading filthy water that prompted the closure of 12 miles of beaches. – Los Angeles Times, December 2010.

“The weather in California has been ‘abnormal’ for most of this century. It will begin returning to the ‘normal’ weather of the 19^th century. You can expect colder and wetter winters and hotter and dryer summers.” — Iben Browning, c. 1975.

In the early days of my analytical career in the ‘70’s, I was fortunate to be a part of Mitchell Hutchins, a research boutique that ultimately was merged into PaineWebber.  Among the many assets of Mitchell Hutchins was its consulting program with the likes of Otto Eckstein, Bill Moyers, Henry Kissinger, David Broder and others spending time internally with us and with our clients.  One of those “others” was Iben Browning, who originally was hired by our food analyst, Roger Spencer, to do short term and seasonal weather forecasting, in order to help us predict soft commodity prices. While Iben’s work turned out to be quite useful on the short-term weather front, he was a man of many talents. His PhD was in zoology. He wrote several books, had over 60 patents, was a test pilot, spent some time with the DOD on geopolitical strategy related to weather patterns and the ability to influence same, and developed a keen interest in long term weather forecasting and climate change. He was an engaging speaker and quickly became a regular with our investing clients as much in demand as some of those with significantly higher profiles.  He ultimately developed some fame as a forecaster of earthquakes and volcanic activity based on changing gravitational pulls on the earth from the alignment of other celestial bodies.  Unfortunately, a rather precise but unfulfilled prediction of a quake in the Mississippi Valley in late 1990, which generated enormous media attention, turned fame to infamy.  He died of a heart attack 7 months later in his home in Tijera, New Mexico; a home rumored to be a house trailer (safer than a real house,  in his view, when an earthquake hits) on rather barren land that he ultimately expected to become arable and fertile as weather patterns shifted over the next century. As with many involved in forecasting, one is only as good as one’s last prediction. Iben does not get much credit for a long history of fairly accurate forecasts done with flair and more data than “An Inconvenient Truth.”  He is remembered for the “New Madrid” quake prediction which even became a country and western song. You can view several renditions on You Tube, if you choose: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5QCeSS03RE&feature=related.

Iben used to start every presentation with a standard punch line: “The next Ice Age will occur in about 10,000 years.  Those people who say it begins in 2000 years are just trying to scare you.”  His other perennial statement was the one that started this post and to me of most interest. At the time I did not totally understand his logic. It consisted of looking at historical weather patterns as reflected in tree rings and other data points, an expected reversal of the pattern of emissions–particularly in Southern California, sunspots and a warming of the east-west currents in the Pacific. In retrospect, the changing weather patterns in California may reflect a combination of increased CO2 emissions globally, producing generally more extreme weather patterns, combined with a more localized moderation in emissions which has eliminated some of the heat trap effects as California has benefited from national improvements in emission controls combined with even more stringent efforts within the state. In other words, the combination of the effect of global emissions on weather patterns with relative improvements locally may be returning California weather to its 19^th century patterns with more seasonal extremes from today’s changes in climate: colder and wetter winters and hotter and dryer summers. At the moment, Browning’s predictions seem to be on point.  It’s all relative, though. I am not suggesting that coastal Californians need to move—yet. Nor should they reverse their efforts to slow emissions.  It may just be another interesting phenomenon of the Climate Change we are experiencing, or another Iben Browning prediction that will ultimately prove to be wrong. I would bet on the former.

This also brings us somewhat full circle to the value of understanding weather as a part of one’s investment decisions. As we have become a more global economy where supply  of soft commodities, or lack thereof, in one part of the world affects worldwide prices, the ability to predict positive or negative weather patterns can be quite important to investment and business decisions. I think this is being magnified by the more extreme variations in weather patterns that can come out of these early stages of Climate Change. I would only expect these patterns to become even more extreme as temperatures continue to rise.  Corporations involved in the agricultural industries have always paid attention to the weather. Investors, as evidenced by Iben Browning’s popularity, have as well. Today, those making the most use of weather forecasting would appear to be a number of hedge funds with the ability to place bets using a wide variety of instruments, where value is affected by a change in the monsoon season in India or extended drought in the Sacramento Valley. As these extreme weather events become more frequent the Iben Brownings of today’s world may become more prominent features in both the investment community and the media. Climate Change will continue to produce a new class of celebrities some of whom will stay with us for a long while.

Light and Life in Rural India

We spent two days in villages in the District of Udupi in the State of Karnataka meeting with our sales agents and visiting homes where the Duron Solar Home System was in use.  We were there with three of our investors who had already spent a day in Bangalore at our headquarters reviewing the business and now wanted to see the system in use in the field. We chose Udupi, since it was “only” a ninety-minute plane ride to Mangalore and another ninety-minute drive to the town. Most of the installations were within 30 minutes of the town itself.

The State of Karnataka is reasonably well electrified. One has to travel deep into the rain forests to find an area without wiring.  Almost all of our systems in this state are in homes with electricity from the grid.  However, because of the uncertainty of when power is actually available and the cost, the villagers are interested in alternative power sources.

The grid in this area gets its power from both hydro and coal-fired utilities.

In the dry season the hydropower is less available because of low water levels.  What is available from whatever source gets diverted to the industrial sector. These are usually scheduled diversions that occur when the light is most needed, i.e., when it is dark. In the monsoon season, which is just beginning, the grid itself has more power delivered to it, but the violence of the storms causes unscheduled outages from lightning or power lines falling, which can sometimes produce two or three days without power.

The alternatives are kerosene lamps, diesel generators, inverters drawing power from the grid when it is available and storing it in batteries, or alternative energy sources, primarily solar, tied into a battery and lighting system of some sort. The Duron system is one of the latter. Cost, reliability, maintenance and simple knowledge of its availability are the primary factors determining which alternative is chosen.  Kerosene lamps are ever present as the ultimate fall back when all else fails.

The visit, while terrifying and certainly rugged for us Westerners, was exciting and gratifying. I say terrifying, because any time one is on the narrow roads with all forms of traffic moving in all directions, the near-death confrontations of two or more vehicles and an occasional animal seem continuous and only Providentially resulting in no accident.  The ruggedness comes from the climate, the accommodations and the rural nature of where the customers are, combined with the uncertainty of the ultimate outcome of drinking all the chai and eating the snacks offered by the owners of each of the homes we visited.

The excitement and gratification came from seeing the diverse ways in which the system is changing lives. A few examples:

A young tailor keeps the solar panel, the power pack and one of the three LED lights that come with the system at his small, unelectrified shop at the intersection of two roads near his village. He sits in front of a pedal-powered Singer sewing machine of uncertain vintage, making and repairing clothing for his neighbors. The single light is used to extend his workday by two or more hours, increasing his income. When he closes up his shop, he locks the solar panel inside and brings the portable power pack home where he has the other two lights mounted for use by his children to study and his wife to cook.  He is probably a customer for a second system when the income from his increased business and the cost savings from using solar as his power source allow a purchase.

A woman living far away from neighbors and help tends her very sick sister. The two of them are the only occupants of the home. She says simply that she needs light for her sister all night. Kerosene is not healthy for her sister and not easily available to someone with no ready form of transportation to replenish it.  And the grid is not there when she needs it.  It doesn’t hurt that the system also has a cell phone charger, which does mean, in an emergency she has a working phone to reach someone.

A large family, living in a quite beautiful and well-kept 150-year-old home, has the three lights each installed above a desk that is used for reading and study by the children and probably some of the adults. This is a traditional home with electric lighting but much of what seems a throwback to an earlier era. The kitchen has a wood cookstove and there are many other traditional elements as well. The family can clearly afford more amenities, but I would surmise that they are savers, not spenders.  The placement of the lights in specific reading areas may indicate that the saving relates to the children and their educational opportunities. Solar lighting eliminates most excuses for not studying as well as ultimately saving money. Here, we were offered and ate freshly cut jackfruit. It would have been pleasant to spend an afternoon with the family, understanding more about their history and their current lifestyle. Our sales person had another important visit she wanted us to make, though.

This was our best sales person in the region—a senior member of a local self-help group with a personality and an element of persuasiveness that made her a natural Dale Carnegie graduate without having taken the course.  We were an out-of-place group of three Americans, three Spaniards, and two other senior Indian executives of the company. She felt it was an auspicious occasion. Our visit was to her temple. She was feeling very happy about having us there and wanted to perform a Puja (look it up) in thanks for the good feelings and the success she was having. It was quite an honor for us and clearly very important to her. As recognition of her success it certainly beat the classic over the top celebrations for the best producers that I experienced in my years in the financial industry. I will participate in a Puja every time I visit the area if it is the motivator of success for our producers.

These producers are changing their neighbors’ lives. The selling process has a bit of a feel of Avon calling, but the product lights up faces in a different manner.  What a wonderful experience.